AGP Executive Report

Mozambique’s climate risk: Southern Africa’s rainy season outlook warns of drier-than-normal conditions across much of the region, including Mozambique, with above-normal temperatures likely—linked to a strengthening El Niño and a developing Indian Ocean Dipole, raising stakes for farming and water planning. Coastal environment under pressure: A new report highlights how heavy mineral sands extraction is clearing coastal habitats and affecting mangroves and natural hydrology in Mozambique, with concerns about projects proceeding without proper environmental impact assessments. Nacala Corridor infrastructure: Japan’s JICA will disburse $10.4m to reconstruct the Natete bridge and improve access roads and riverbank protection, aiming to boost connectivity while strengthening resilience to climate impacts. Energy access push: Mozambique’s EDM says it is on track to add 420,000+ new electricity connections by end-2026, lifting access to 22.7m people (66.9%) and supporting the Energy for All goal for 2030. Governance and security: President Daniel Chapo urged commando trainees to stay ready for sophisticated threats, while the AU calls for urgent reforms to strengthen conflict prevention across hotspots that include northern Mozambique.

Climate Risk for Farming: Southern Africa’s rainy season outlook is turning drier-than-normal for much of the region, with Mozambique included in areas facing increased chances of below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to March 2027, alongside above-normal temperatures—linked to a strengthening El Niño and a developing Indian Ocean Dipole. Water & Food Adaptation: Mozambique’s agriculture ministry points to greenhouses and boreholes as practical ways to cut reliance on rain-fed farming, alongside irrigation rehabilitation and scaling certified seed production. Electricity Access Push: Mozambique’s EDM says access to electricity has risen to 22.7 million people (66.9%) and plans at least 420,000 new connections by end-2026, aiming for universal access by 2030. Mining & Mangroves Under Pressure: A report highlights how heavy mineral sands extraction is clearing mangroves and altering coastal hydrology, with concerns raised about environmental impact assessments and Chinese-linked operations. Conservation Governance Clash: iSimangaliso protests are framed as a co-management failure, with communities alleging broken trust, weak consultation, and livelihood impacts after tree cutting and earlier fence disruptions. Press Freedom Under Threat: A new report warns environmental journalists across sub-Saharan Africa face assaults and threats, including in Mozambique, particularly when covering illegal mining and logging. Energy Corruption Probe (Malawi): Malawi’s anti-corruption body is investigating a disputed NOCMA payment tied to alleged fraudulent correspondence, with arrests already made.

Climate Outlook for Southern Africa: SARCOF-33 warns of a hotter, drier 2026/27 rainy season across much of the region, with increased chances of below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to March 2027 in countries including Mozambique, and above-normal temperatures likely—raising alarms for water, crops and livestock. Mozambique Electricity Access: Mozambique’s EDM says electricity access has jumped to 22.7 million people (66.9% of the population), up from 9.8 million in 2019, and targets at least 420,000 new connections by end-2026 under its Energy for All Programme. Mozambique Heavy Sands Under Scrutiny: A report highlights how mineral sands extraction is clearing mangroves and altering natural water flows, with concerns that some projects proceed without proper environmental impact assessment. Environmental Journalism Under Threat: A new media-freedom report says environmental reporters across sub-Saharan Africa face assaults and threats, with Mozambique among countries where journalists were targeted for covering illegal mining and logging. Greenhouse and Borehole Farming Push: Mozambique’s agriculture ministry points to greenhouses and boreholes as climate-proofing tools, urging farmers to shift away from rain-fed production as cycles become more unpredictable.

Climate Outlook: Southern Africa’s rainy season is tipped to be drier than normal in many areas, with SARCOF-33 linking the risk to a strengthening El Niño and a developing Indian Ocean Dipole—Mozambique is named among countries with increased chances of below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to March 2027, alongside above-normal temperatures that could raise water and farming stress. Electricity Access: Mozambique’s EDM says electricity access has climbed to 22.7 million people (66.9% of the population), up from about 9.8 million in 2019, as the grid expands under the Energy for All Programme, with a target of at least 420,000 new connections by end-2026. Mangroves Under Pressure: A Mongabay investigation reports that satellite alerts flagged mangrove loss in Mozambique’s Zambezi Delta for years, but regulatory action lagged—now linked to Chinese heavy-sands mining activity that allegedly blocked waterways sustaining mangrove ecosystems. Mining & Environment: Separate reporting highlights concerns that Mozambique’s heavy mineral sands extraction is clearing mangroves and altering hydrology, sometimes without proper environmental impact assessment processes. Media Freedom: A new report warns environmental journalists across sub-Saharan Africa face threats and assaults, including in Mozambique, especially when covering illegal mining, deforestation and oil management.

Climate Outlook: Southern Africa, including Mozambique, faces higher chances of drier-than-normal rains in the Oct 2026–Mar 2027 season, with above-normal temperatures likely—linked to a strengthening El Niño and a developing Indian Ocean Dipole, raising risks for water and agriculture. Coastal & Mining Impacts: A Mongabay investigation says Chinese-linked heavy sand mining in Mozambique’s Zambezi Delta has destroyed hundreds of hectares of mangroves, with satellite alerts reportedly ignored for years while waterways were blocked. Agriculture Adaptation: Mozambique’s agriculture ministry points to greenhouses and boreholes as practical ways to cut reliance on rain-fed farming, alongside irrigation repairs and scaling certified seed production. Electricity Access: EDM says electricity access has risen to 22.7 million people (66.9%) and plans at least 420,000 new connections by end-2026 under its Energy for All programme. Press Freedom: A report warns environmental journalists across sub-Saharan Africa—including Mozambique—face assaults and threats, especially when covering illegal mining, logging and oil management. Water Diplomacy: Mozambique joined a Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy, pushing water investment and cross-border cooperation.

Mangroves Under Threat: A Mongabay investigation says Chinese-linked heavy sand mining in Mozambique’s Zambezi Delta has destroyed hundreds of hectares of mangroves by blocking waterways, with satellite alerts reportedly flagged as early as late 2023 but no action taken for years. Electricity Access Push: Mozambique’s EDM plans at least 420,000 new electricity connections by end-2026, lifting access to 22.7 million people (66.9%) versus 9.8 million in 2019, as the country targets universal access by 2030. Climate Outlook for Southern Africa: SADC warns a strong El Niño could bring drier conditions across much of the region in 2026/27, including below-normal rainfall affecting water and agriculture planning in places like northern Mozambique. Cabo Delgado Displacement: Mozambique begins a forum on the future of displaced people as conflict in Cabo Delgado enters its ninth year, with over 1.3 million displaced since 2017 and renewed attacks driving fresh humanitarian needs. Media Safety: A report says environmental journalists across sub-Saharan Africa face assault and threats, including in Mozambique, especially when covering illegal mining, deforestation and oil management.

Electricity Access Push: Mozambique’s state power utility EDM says it will add at least 420,000 new connections by end-2026, extending electricity to about two million people and building on progress toward universal access by 2030. Climate Risk for Southern Africa: SADC countries are bracing for a dry, hot rainy season as a strong El Niño is expected to bring below-normal rainfall across much of the region, raising alarms for water shortages and pressure on agriculture, including northern Mozambique. Mangroves Under Threat: A Mongabay investigation reports that satellite alerts flagged mangrove loss in Mozambique’s Zambezi Delta for years, but action lagged—while a Chinese-linked heavy sands operation is accused of blocking waterways and destroying hundreds of hectares. Water Diplomacy: Mozambique joined a World Water Week-linked Global Ambassadors’ Forum focused on water investment and economic diplomacy, aiming to close a major water and sanitation funding gap. Flood Recovery: Mozambique’s disaster agency INGD delivered food assistance to 1,880 households affected by Maputo province floods earlier this year. Solar for Communities: A Rio-based initiative, Insolar, highlights how solar access and training can be expanded through community partnerships—relevant to energy access debates across the region.

Climate Risk for Southern Africa: SADC warns most countries, including parts of Mozambique, face below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures from Oct 2026 to Jan 2027, with El Niño and Indian Ocean dipoles driving water and agriculture stress. Mangroves Under Threat in Mozambique: A Mongabay investigation says satellite alerts flagged mangrove loss in Chinde, Zambezia from late 2023, but enforcement lagged; it links hundreds of hectares of mangrove destruction to Chinese-linked heavy sand mining that blocked waterways. Water Diplomacy Push: At World Water Week, GWPO launched a Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy, aiming to close a major water investment gap and strengthen cross-border cooperation—Mozambique among participating countries. Flood Recovery in Maputo: INGD handed food assistance to 1,880 households affected by January floods in Maputo province, targeting the most vulnerable with month-long food kits. HIV Prevention Uptake: Maputo reports high uptake of long-acting injectable PrEP (lenacapavir) across 27 facilities, offering protection with only two doses per year. Governance & Finance: Auditors say Mozambique’s IDC faced major financial reporting control and valuation problems, requiring R2bn in corrections before an unqualified audit.

Mangroves under pressure: A Mongabay investigation links rapid mangrove loss in Zambezia’s river delta to sand mining by Mozambique Heavy Sand Company VIII, part-owned by China’s Jinan Yuxiao Group, with satellite images pointing to a blocked waterway after mining between 2022 and 2026. Cabo Delgado displacement forum: Mozambique’s government is holding a two-day forum on the future of displaced people as the northern conflict enters its ninth year, with renewed attacks since late 2025 driving displacement across all 17 Cabo Delgado districts. Flood response in Maputo: INGD has delivered food assistance to 1,880 households affected by January floods in Maputo province, including rice, maize flour, sugar, beans and cooking oil for one month. Matola rivers rehabilitation: IMARP and JS Consultoria e Serviços signed an MoU for an integrated Matola Rivers Rehabilitation Project focused on drainage, ecological restoration, fish farming, training and a modern fish market. PrEP uptake in Maputo: Maputo’s health council reports high uptake of long-acting injectable PrEP (lenacapavir) across 27 facilities, with two doses per year making it easier for clients—especially adolescents—to stay protected. Pesticide monitoring idea: Researchers propose using returning water-foraging bees to detect pesticide contamination in nearby surface water, highlighting major monitoring gaps across sub-Saharan Africa. Development Bank rules approved: Government approved regulations to make Mozambique’s Development Bank (BDM) operational, aiming to mobilize long-term resources and finance strategic, inclusive and sustainable growth.

Displacement in Cabo Delgado: Mozambique’s government has opened a forum on the future of displaced people as the northern conflict enters its ninth year, with renewed late-2025 attacks driving displacement across all 17 Cabo Delgado districts and leaving more than 1.3 million people displaced. Flood recovery in Maputo: The National Disaster Management Institute (INGD) delivered food assistance to 1,880 households affected by January floods in southern Maputo province, including Namaacha, Moamba, Boane and Matutuine. River rehabilitation for food and ecosystems: IMARP and JS Consultoria e Serviços signed an MoU to launch an integrated Matola Rivers rehabilitation project in Maputo city, targeting drainage, ecological restoration, community fish farming and a modern fish market. Pesticide pollution monitoring: Researchers propose using water-foraging bees to detect pesticide contamination in surface water, highlighting major data gaps across sub-Saharan Africa for atrazine, glyphosate, metolachlor and imidacloprid. Extreme weather preparedness: Eastern and Southern Africa is bracing for El Niño-driven extreme conditions, with Kenya warning of above-average rainfall, flash floods and landslides affecting up to 1.5 million people. Clean energy cooperation: Tanzania and Zimbabwe discussed boosting cooperation, including clean energy efforts aimed at tackling deforestation and environmental degradation.

Matola Rivers Rehabilitation: Mozambique’s IMARP and JS Consultoria e Serviços signed an MoU to launch an integrated Matola rivers environmental recovery project in Maputo, targeting drainage upgrades, ecological restoration, fish farming, training and research, plus a modern fish market to boost food security and incomes. Regional Fuel Infrastructure: Mozambique–Zimbabwe’s Beira–Feruka fuel corridor is set to expand capacity by 67% by end-2027, with CPMZ beginning two new pumping stations in Sofala and Manica to raise annual transport from 3m to 5m cubic metres. Port & Corridor Performance: Grindrod reports record first-half port volumes, with Maputo’s dry bulk terminal hitting 8.4m tonnes and Matola handling 4.2m tonnes, supporting southern African logistics despite weather disruptions. Wildlife Conservation: Mozambique’s wild dogs are being reintroduced to South Africa via a range expansion program, aiming to restore genetically diverse packs after the species disappeared from Mozambique during civil conflict. Extreme Weather Watch: Kenya is preparing for El Niño-driven extreme rainfall, with officials warning of flash floods, mudslides and large-scale displacement risks. Tourism Linkages: Tanzania and Mozambique are pushing for a regional tourism corridor that links complementary destinations across East and Southern Africa to grow jobs and foreign-exchange earnings.

Extreme Weather Watch: Kenya is bracing for above-average rains tied to a severe El Niño, with officials warning of flash floods, mudslides and possible displacement of up to 500,000 people, and landslides affecting about 450,000. River Recovery in Maputo: Mozambique’s IMARP and JS Consultoria e Serviços signed an MoU to launch an integrated Matola Rivers rehabilitation project, targeting drainage upgrades, ecological restoration, fish farming and a new fish market to support food security and river ecosystem recovery. Fuel Corridor Expansion: Mozambique and Zimbabwe’s Beira–Harare fuel corridor is set to grow 67% by end-2027 after CPMZ begins a second phase that will add pumping stations and lift annual capacity on the Beira–Feruka pipeline from 3 to 5 million cubic metres. Flood Damage Costs: A report estimates flooding losses across Africa between 2024 and H1 2026, flagging Mozambique among the hardest hit by asset damage and highlighting deforestation and poor drainage as key drivers. Wildlife Conservation Link: African wild dogs are being reintroduced from Mozambique into South Africa to rebuild genetically diverse packs, with the species having disappeared from Mozambique during the civil war era.

Flood and climate damage: A new report estimates African flooding losses of $1.73bn in Nigeria (2024–H1 2026), with Mozambique next at $1.5bn, alongside major human impacts—Mozambique alone affecting 1.86m people—blamed on poor urban planning, weak drainage, deforestation and environmental degradation. Terror risk to nature tourism: The US warns travellers to avoid parts of Mozambique, especially Cabo Delgado, citing “Do Not Travel” areas and risks of attacks on tourist destinations and lodges, including Quirimbas National Park. Protected areas and conservation governance: Prince Harry has resigned from the board of African Parks, ending a formal role tied to conservation across 13 countries—an update that matters for wildlife protection and park management. Water security model in Mozambique: A World Bank and Mozambique delegation visited Kenya’s eWATER approach, highlighting lessons for Mozambique’s rural water delivery—community participation, affordable tariffs, water conservation and smart distribution. Transboundary water cooperation: Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania signed the Ruvuma/Rovuma Establishment Agreement to set up a river basin commission, aiming for more inclusive management of shared waters supporting water supply, agriculture, fisheries and biodiversity.

Mozambique Security & Tourism: The U.S. State Department updated its travel advisory for Mozambique, warning Americans to avoid parts of the country where terrorism risks are high, including “Do Not Travel” areas in Cabo Delgado tied to safari and wildlife destinations. Conservation Governance: Prince Harry has resigned from the board of African Parks, ending his formal role with the charity that manages 24 protected areas across 13 African countries—an update that matters for how conservation is governed and funded. Transboundary Water Cooperation (Mozambique): Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania signed the Ruvuma/Rovuma Establishment Agreement to set up a river basin commission, building on earlier steps toward more inclusive management of shared waters for supply, agriculture, fisheries and biodiversity. Climate & Disaster Resilience: Kruger National Park is preparing to “build back better” after major flood damage, a reminder for Mozambique’s own flood-prone ecosystems and infrastructure planning. Water Access Benchmarking: A World Bank and Mozambique delegation visited Kenya’s Kirinyaga eWATER model, looking at community smart taps, affordable tariffs and water conservation to inform rural water projects in Mozambique.

Mozambique Security & Resilience: Frelimo is urging stronger measures against Islamist terrorism in Cabo Delgado, calling for permanent community vigilance and tighter preventive controls, while also stressing the need to adapt Mozambique’s infrastructure strategy to withstand environmental shocks. Transboundary Water Governance: Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania have signed the Ruvuma/Rovuma Establishment Agreement to create a river basin commission, building on earlier cooperation and aiming for more inclusive, sustainable management of shared waters that support water supply, agriculture, fisheries and biodiversity. Deep-Sea Minerals Race: A US-backed pre-feasibility study for Mozambique’s rare earth project in Tete (Monte Muambe) is set to start in September, with work to test extraction and processing, estimate development costs and assess viability—amid growing global competition for deep-ocean resources. Water Access Benchmarking: A World Bank and Mozambique delegation visited Kenya’s Kirinyaga eWATER model to learn how smart, affordable rural water systems can be scaled, focusing on community participation, water conservation and treated-water tariffs. Regional Energy & Local Content: The African Energy Chamber says Africa’s local content agenda must shift from paperwork to real skills and accountable industry growth, highlighting Mozambique among markets showing this move.

Municipal Water, Waste and Energy Delivery: South Africa’s Public Works & Infrastructure Minister Dean Macpherson told SIDSSA 2026 that 37 projects (~R69bn) are completed and 82 (~R502.7bn) are under construction, with R131m earmarked for municipal support to unlock major investment in water, sanitation, energy and waste-management. Transboundary Water Governance: Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania signed the Ruvuma/Rovuma Establishment Agreement to create a river basin commission covering the full basin, building on earlier joint water cooperation steps. Cabo Delgado Local Capacity for LNG: TotalEnergies says it has trained 100 SMEs in Cabo Delgado through its CapacitaMoz programme, with training that includes health, safety and environment—aimed at strengthening local supply chains for LNG-linked projects. Protected Areas Under Gold Rush Pressure: Illegal gold mining is damaging Mwabvi Wildlife Reserve and Matandwe Forest Reserve in Malawi, with trenches, tree cutting and habitat destruction spreading toward protected areas. Deep-Sea Minerals Race: A wider push for deep-ocean minerals worth up to $16tn is accelerating as major powers compete for critical materials—raising new questions for biodiversity and ocean protection. Mozambique Water Benchmarking: A World Bank and Mozambique delegation visited Kenya’s eWATER model to learn how community participation, water conservation and affordable tariffs can expand safe rural water services.